IN FOCUS
By Keerthana Nambiar

China-US unlikely to have military conflict in the South China Sea

On 26 September, South China Morning Post reported an article on how it is unlikely to have a military conflict between China and the US as per Knowfar Institute for Strategic and Defence Studies, a Chinese think tank founded by retired Chinese military officers. The think tank claims that despite the disagreements over the South China Sea and ongoing rivalry the chances of US attack in the disputed sea was “relatively low”.

The report stresses the fact that US Navy has had guided-missile destroyer, Arleigh Burke, for almost a decade to operate in the South China Sea but refrained to do so. It declared that US Navy fleets have never been part of freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) in the disputed waters and have toned down their military presence during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Collin Koh, a maritime security analyst with Singapore’s S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said an Arleigh Burke guided-missile destroyer was the best option for the US. “Doing FONOPs ought to be accomplished with minimal yet credible effort – without unnecessarily detracting from other equally if not more important missions,” he said. Koh informed that both the countries have been safe and professional as per the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea, agreed in 2014. He further added, “The [US and Chinese] crews exchange radio calls and even engage in informal conversations to kill the boredom and monotony of operations out there.” Tian Shichen, director of the Centre for International Law of Military Operation in Beijing, stated that neither China nor the US aims to start an armed conflict. He said, “In the South China Sea, the US military tends to adopt strategic deterrence and tactical provocation to put pressure [on Chinese counterparts]”. He also mentioned that “The [US and Chinese] crews exchange radio calls and even engage in informal conversations to kill the boredom and monotony of operations out there”.Lu Li-shih, a former instructor at Taiwan’s naval academy expressed his thoughts that the American FONOPs were aimed not at initiating a war opposition but rather to China turning reefs in the disputed South China Sea into artificial islands for military purposes. “We can see both the People’s Liberation Army [PLA] and their American counterparts have restrained themselves very well, even when tension between Beijing and Washington was soaring late last year during the US presidential election.”

References
“China, US unlikely to have military conflict, Chinese think tank says, South China Morning Post, 26 September 2021”
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3150094/china-us-unlikely-have-military-conflict-chinese-think-tank?utm_medium=email&utm_source=cm&utm_campaign=enlz-today_international&utm_content=20210926&tpcc=enlz-today_international&UUID=ff9c951d-cf7a-4350-8e82-b73dc9eb5263&next_article_id=3150164&tc=7&CMCampaignID=74de335c0352eee6478f439e2397cdc0

IN BRIEF
By Juan Mary Joseph and Avishka Ashok

INTERNAL
China seeks to quell fears of power crunch fears as coal prices soar
On 29 September, Reuters reported that China’s powerful state planner has demanded railway companies and local authorities to raise their transportation of vital coal supplies to utilities, as the country grapples with power cuts that have crippled industrial output. The move comes after tight coal supplies, tougher standards of emissions and strong manufacturing demand has raised the price of coal, which is the biggest source of electricity in China. Curbs have been imposed on power use in the country, particularly in three north eastern provinces that is home to around 100 million people. (China seeks to quell power crunch fears, as coal prices soar, winter nears ,Reuters, 29 September 2021)
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-says-will-reduce-number-abortions-non-medical-purposes-2021-09-27/

REGIONAL
Taiwan's participation in regional economic cooperation must be based on the one-China principle: Taiwan Affairs Office
On 29 September, Global Times reported that the Taiwan Affairs Office of State Council re-stressed that Taiwan's participation in regional economic cooperation must be based on the one-China principle. This statement came in response to Taiwan’s application to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). The office also said that it opposes Taiwan's participation in any free trade arrangement or signing any free trade agreement with an official nature. (Taiwan's participation in regional economic cooperation must be based on one-China principle: Taiwan Affairs Office, Reuters, 29 September 2021)
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202109/1235455.shtml 

Hong Kong journalists at RTHK told uphold ‘constitutional order’ 
On 29 September, SCMP reported that Hong Kong’s public broadcaster, RTHK, has issued a 105-page detailed set of guidelines that lays down an editorial direction for staff, that sets strict boundaries and obligations to safeguard national security and cultivate national identity. The guidelines also urged staff to uphold “the constitutional order” of the city and China’s sovereignty, after allegations of “biased” news coverage stemming from the anti-government protests. (Hong Kong journalists at public broadcaster RTHK told they must uphold ‘constitutional order’ in new set of editorial guidelines, Reuters, 29 September 2021)
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/society/article/3150553/hong-kong-journalists-public-broadcaster-rthk-told-they-must 

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
China's Belt and Road plans losing momentum-study 
On 29 September, Reuters reported that according to a study by Aiddata, a research lab at the College of William and Mary in the US, Chinese President Xinping’s "project of the century", Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is facing major challenges and significant backlashes abroad. The project is in danger of losing momentum as rising oppositions in targeted countries and mounting debts are paving way for rival schemes against China due to concerns of overpricing, corruption and debt sustainability. The AidData study looked at 13,427 China-backed projects in 165 countries over 18 years, worth $843 billion in total, of which projects in Malaysia, Kazakhstan and Bolivia have been cancelled. (China's Belt and Road plans losing momentum as opposition, debt mount -study, Reuters, 29 September 2021)
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-belt-road-plans-losing-momentum-opposition-debt-mount-study-2021-09-29/  

Kishida may not keep extreme rhetoric on China policy 
On 29 September, Global Times reported that Fumio Kishida, who won the leadership election of the Japanese ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), is assured of being the next Prime Minister of Japan. Although Kishida vowed about dealing with China and countering its growing influence would be a top priority, the tabloid added that he may not go towards the extreme right-wing path and that the new Japanese cabinet will not fundamentally change Japan's foreign policy with respect to China. (Kishida to be next Japanese PM, may not keep extreme rhetoric on China policy 'for the good of both' Reuters, 29 September 2021)
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202109/1235465.shtml 

Chinese ambassador urges Canada to reflect on mistakes and bring bilateral ties back on right track
On 29 September, Global Times reported that the Chinese Ambassador to Canada Cong Peiwu urged Canada to seriously reflect on its mistakes, learn from its lessons, and work with China to bring back for China-Canada relations on the right as soon as possible. The ambassador's speech at an online reception held by the Chinese Embassy in Canada to celebrate the 72nd anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China was made following the release of Huawei Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou in what the tabloid termed a ‘landmark deal’. (Chinese ambassador urges Canada to reflect on mistakes and bring bilateral ties back on right track ' Reuters, 29 September 2021)
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202109/1235468.shtml 

China unveils 'loyal wingman' armed drone concept
On 29 September, Reuters reported China revealed a drone concept, similar in mission and appearance, to the US-made Kratos XQ-58A Valkyrie as countries race to invest in "loyal wingman" drones to help protect pricier crewed fighter jets. A representative of the China Aerospace Science Technology Corp's (CASTC) Feihong product line said that the long-range FH-97 drone concept can carry different types of weapons, and has swarm and electronic warfare capabilities. (China unveils 'loyal wingman' armed drone concept' Reuters, 29 September 2021)
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/china-unveils-loyal-wingman-armed-drone-concept-2021-09-29/ 

Hong Kong legislature passes controversial anti-doxxing privacy bill
On 29 September, Reuters reported Hong Kong's legislature passed a privacy law that tackles "doxxing" or the public release of information that identifies an individual or organisation, which critics say could be used to protect those in power and target civil society.(Hong Kong legislature passes controversial anti-doxxing privacy bill' Reuters, 29 September 2021)
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/hong-kong-legislature-passes-controversial-anti-doxxing-privacy-bill-2021-09-29/